Coffee quotation: what influences market prices?

Behind every cup of espresso lies a complex mechanism of production, trade and distribution, governed by market dynamics that are often invisible to the consumer. The coffee quotation is the first link in this chain: it is the price set on international markets for the main varieties, particularly Arabica and Robusta, and it is the result of a multitude of factors, including climate, geopolitics, logistics and financial speculation.
Understanding how the coffee quotation works not only means knowing why the price of the package we buy at the supermarket may vary, but also allows us to appreciate the real value of the producers’ work and to recognize the importance of conscious and sustainable consumption. Below, we explore all the aspects that influence the price of coffee and how these are reflected in the cup we drink every day.

How the quotation of robusta and arabica coffee works

The price of coffee is set daily on the world’s major commodity exchanges. For the Arabica variety, the reference point is the ICE market (Intercontinental Exchange) in New York. For the Robusta variety, however, the reference market is the LIFFE in London. Quotations are expressed in cents of dollars per pound (1 pound = 453 grams) and can vary significantly even within a few hours.
It is important to know that the quotation refers to the price of green coffee, meaning beans that have not yet been roasted, ready to be exported and processed. Numerous costs are then added along the supply chain: transport, customs duties, processing, roasting, packaging and distribution.
Any fluctuation in the value of the raw material is eventually reflected in the final price of the coffee we find in the cup or in the package, even if the impact is not always immediate.

Climatic and agronomic factors: the weight of the environment

One of the most decisive elements in determining the price of coffee is undoubtedly the climate. The coffee plant is extremely sensitive to weather variations. Prolonged droughts, nighttime frosts, out-of-season rains or extreme events such as hurricanes or fires can compromise entire harvests, causing an immediate surge in prices.
In 2021, for example, a severe frost in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of Arabica, caused a significant reduction in production, pushing prices to record levels. Similarly, diseases such as coffee rust or issues related to soil fertility can reduce yields and alter the available supply on the market.
When supply decreases but demand remains stable or increases, the price of coffee inevitably tends to rise, following the classic rules of economics.

Global demand and consumption dynamics

Over the past twenty years, global demand for coffee has experienced constant growth, driven mainly by the expansion of Asian markets and an increasing interest in high-quality coffee blends. China, South Korea and India, once marginal in per-capita consumption, now represent key emerging markets, with increasingly sophisticated demand.
At the same time, in Europe and North America, a culture of specialty coffee has taken hold, promoting origin, artisanal roasting and alternative extraction techniques. CaffèLab is an active part of this transformation, selecting high-quality lots and promoting transparent and sustainable supply chains.
The increase in global demand influences the quotation because it makes coffee a highly sought-after commodity, and therefore subject to greater speculation in financial markets.

Financial speculation and currency fluctuations

Coffee, like other agricultural commodities, is subject to speculative movements by investors and financial funds. When future scarcity is expected, even just for climatic or geopolitical reasons, many operators begin buying futures (forward contracts), contributing to artificially raising the price, regardless of the actual availability of the product.
Currency fluctuations between the U.S. dollar and local currencies can also significantly influence the quotation. Since coffee is priced in dollars, a strengthening of the U.S. currency makes it more expensive for importing countries to purchase coffee and can therefore affect demand and, consequently, the global price.

What impact all this has on the consumer

The final consumer is the last link in the chain, but not the least involved. When the price of raw materials rises significantly, the cost can be transferred to supermarket coffee, bar blends and even artisanal specialty coffees.
However, in quality supply chains, a price increase is not always a negative factor. On the contrary, it is often the result of greater fairness in value distribution, allowing small producers to receive more appropriate compensation for their work and to invest in more sustainable agricultural practices.
Choosing single-origin coffees, traceable, certified and purchased from ethical roasters, such as those offered by CaffèLab, means actively taking part in a virtuous supply chain, where the price reflects quality and respect for those who cultivate.
Understanding the coffee quotation is an important step for every true enthusiast. It means going beyond taste and questioning what lies behind each bean, what economic dynamics drive it and how one can contribute to a fairer market.
CaffèLab continues to closely monitor market quotations, selecting only coffees that meet criteria of quality, transparency and sustainability. To explore these topics further, discover our initiatives such as the Women Coffee Project, dedicated to a fair and ethical coffee supply chain.